Rekordliels dārgmetālu rallijs – vai šis ir jauna zelta drudža sākums

Zelta rekordlielais rallijs ir pārspējis 2870 dolāru par unci, ko veicināja centrālo banku veiktie pirkumi, bažas par inflāciju un deglobalizācijas bailes. 

Zelta nerimstošais kāpums ir pārsteidzis tirgus, pārspējot cenu rekordus un kopš gada sākuma pieaugot par gandrīz 10 %, kas ir pieaugums, kāds šajā pašā laika periodā nav pieredzēts kopš 1980. gada, liekot investoriem uzdot jautājumu, vai šis rallijs ir jaunas zelta ēras sākums.

Tā kā centrālās bankas paātrina iepirkumus un ģeopolitiskā spriedze veicina pieprasījumu pēc drošiem aktīviem, daudzi jautā, vai šis ir zelta jaunās ēras sākums.

Trešdienas rīta tirdzniecībā Eiropā zelta vērtība pieauga virs 2870 ASV dolāru (2780 eiro) par unci, turpinot iespaidīgo ralliju, jo pieaugošās ekonomiskās nenoteiktības apstākļos investori, jo īpaši centrālās bankas, pievērsās dārgmetāliem.

Lai gan parasti zeltu labvēlīgi ietekmē vājāks ASV dolārs, krītoši valsts kases vērtspapīru ienesīguma rādītāji vai gaidas par Federālo rezervju sistēmas procentu likmju samazināšanu, šoreiz ralliju, šķiet, veicināja dziļāki strukturāli spēki.

Parāda, inflācijas un deglobalizācijas ideālā vētra

Crescat Capital makrostratēģijas speciālists Otavio Kosta sacīja, ka “pasaule piedzīvo vēstures stundu reālajā laikā par zelta nozīmi”.

Pēc Kostas domām, vairāki makroekonomiskie spēki dzen zeltu augšup, uzsverot faktoru kombināciju, kas atgādina iepriekšējās ekonomikas krīzes.

Valdību parāda līmenis sasniedzis vēsturiski augstāko līmeni, atgādinot 20. gadsimta 40. gadu parāda problēmu, savukārt inflācijas spiediens pieaug tādā veidā, kas atgādina 20. gadsimta 70. gadu problēmas. Tikmēr ārkārtīgi augsti aktīvu novērtējumi akciju tirgos atsauc atmiņā 20. gs. 20. un 90. gadu finanšu pārmērības.

ASV fiskālajam deficītam palielinoties un G7 valstu tautsaimniecībām uzsākot ražošanas atdzīvināšanas un deglobalizācijas periodu, zelts arvien biežāk tiek uzskatīts par nodrošinājumu pret finanšu nestabilitāti.

Centrālo banku darbība

Galvenais faktors, kas nosaka zelta vērtspapīru pieauguma tendenci, ir nepieredzēti straujie centrālās bankas veiktie pirkumi.

Tikai 2024. gadā vien centrālās bankas jau trešo gadu pēc kārtas iegādājās vairāk nekā 1000 tonnu zelta, un ceturtajā ceturksnī pirkšana strauji paātrinājās, sasniedzot 333 tonnas, liecina jaunākais Pasaules zelta padomes ziņojums.

“Pasaules rezervju piešķīrumi zeltam pēdējo 10 gadu laikā ir divkāršojušies, un, visticamāk, šī tendence turpināsies, ņemot vērā bažas par ASV fiskālo ilgtspēju un ģeopolitiku,” sacīja Topdown Charts pētījumu vadītājs Kalums Tomass.

Saskaņā ar Goldman Sachs aplēsēm kopš Krievijas centrālo banku aktīvu iesaldēšanas 2022. gadā pasaules centrālo banku pieprasījums Londonas ārpusbiržas tirgū ir pieckāršojies, atspoguļojot pieaugošās bažas par iespējamiem finanšu ierobežojumiem.

Vai Londonai pietrūkst zelta

Zelta cenu kāpuma laikā parādījušās ziņas par traucējumiem Londonas zelta tirgū, kur tirgotāji cenšas aizņemties dārgmetālus no centrālajām bankām, jo piegādes uz ASV ir strauji pieaugušas.

Reuters pagājušajā nedēļā ziņoja, ka Bank of England, kas glabā zeltu centrālajām bankām, piedzīvo līdz pat četrām nedēļām ilgu izņemšanas aizkavēšanos, kas ir daudz ilgāka nekā ierastās dažas dienas.

Tomēr Metals Daily izpilddirektors Ross Normans noraidīja bažas: “Situācija ir īslaicīga un galvenokārt ir loģistikas pārkārtošanās, nevis fundamentāls zelta trūkums”.

Zelts tiek pārvietots no Londonas uz Ņujorku caur Šveici, jo ASV pircēji pieprasa mazākus kilobārus standarta 400 unču stieņu vietā. Šveices rafinēšanas rūpnīcas ir aizņemtas zelta pārveidošanā, kas izraisīja kavēšanos, bet zelta tirgū tas ir normāls process.

Saskaņā ar Londonas Dārgmetālu tirgus asociācijas glabātuvju statistiku Londonā joprojām ir aptuveni 8 710 tonnas zelta. Lai gan 435 tonnas ir pārvietotas uz Ņujorku, tas joprojām ir tikai neliela daļa no kopējā piedāvājuma.

Neraugoties uz zelta straujo kāpumu, daži rādītāji liecina, ka rallijs vēl nav beidzies.  Vēl nav zināms, vai šis ir sākums ilgstošam jaunam zelta uzplaukumam vai tikai vēl viens ciklisks kāpums, taču pagaidām gan investori, gan centrālās bankas liek lielas likmes uz dārgmetāliem.

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    The right exercise for you will rely upon the diagnosis and signs of the situation inflicting the
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    The guillotine press scored relatively low within the German examine.

    As a end result, it’s important to incorporate workouts
    into your routine that focus on the rear delts, and face pulls are a wonderful choice.
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    References:

    Steroid prescription

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